Análisis del efecto del cambio climático en la distribución espacial de las especies Enterolobium cyclocarpum (Jacq.) Griseb, Hymenaea courbaril L., y Bursera simaruba (L.) Sarg., características del bosque seco tropical en Colombia, para los periodos 2021 – 2040 y 2041- 2060

Abstract

The study analyzes the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of species (SDM) Enterolobium cyclocarpum (Jacq.) Griseb, Hymenaea courbaril L., and Bursera simaruba (L.) Sarg., characteristic of the tropical dry forest in Colombia, for the periods 2021-2040 and 2041-2060. Initially, the probability of SDM under current bioclimatic conditions and climate change scenarios in defined periods was identified. Changes in SDM in terms of habitat loss, gain, and persistence were determined using geographic information processing tools. Methodologically, GBIF occurrence records, 19 bioclimatic variables available in the WorldClim v.2.1 database, the global climate model MPI-ESM1-2-HR, maximum entropy algorithm - MaxEnt v.3.4.4, and ArcGIS 10.8 Spatial Analyst tools were used.